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andrew garton [c2o] on 27 Sep 2000 23:55:18 -0000


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curious to know who on this list recieved the following:

date: Wed, 27 Sep 2000 15:25:17 +0200
to: office {AT} globalreflexion.org
from: global reflexion <office {AT} globalreflexion.org>
subject: Yugoslav elections

---

trying to track down the source of this _loaded_ posting...

seems to have originated from an xs4all account, perhaps tunnelled, but i'm
not enuf of a tech person 2 know...

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--- 

the posting states as follows (4 the record) it's a long one... it has a
lot of convincing to do...:



to: office {AT} globalreflexion.org
from: global reflexion <office {AT} globalreflexion.org>
subject: Yugoslav elections
mime-Version: 1.0
content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1"

The Global Reflexion Foundation contributes, according to her ability, to
the distribution of information on international issues that in the media
does not recieve proper attention or is presented in a distorted way. We
receive information from different sources, that does not necessary reflect
our opinion. If you don't want to receive it, please send us an e-mail.

*************************************************************************
Wednesday, September 27, 2000

1. Election Report from Tanjug
2. International Observers Say Elections Were "Free and Fair"
3. Early Election Results: Big Defeat for U.S. Fifth Column Tactics - by
Jared Israel
4. NATO Game-Plan: Destabilize Yugoslavia - by George Szamuely
5. Despite all, many stay true to Milosevic - by Lutz Kleveman
6. Yugoslavia After Milosevic - by Lord Owen.
7. U.S. House Approves $500 Million for Serb Opposition

**************************************************

Election Report from Tanjug.

 BELGRADE, Sep 26 (Tanjug).- The Federal Electoral Commission held a
session Tuesday chaired by Borivoje Vukicevic and announced the first
preliminary results of Yugoslav presidential election on the basis of
results  processed so far for 10,153 polling stations. 
 Turnout was 64.16 percent, or 5,036,478 out of the total electorate of
7,848,818. The five presidential candidates won the following number of
votes: 

 - Miroljub Vidojkovic 40,765 or 0.80 percent 

 - Vojislav Kostunica 2,428,714 or 48.22 percent 

 - Slobodan Milosevic 2,026,478 or 40.23 percent 

 - Vojislav Mihailovic 130,598 or 2.59 percent 

 - Tomislav Nikolic 256,876 or 5.10 percent 

 Invalid ballots - 3.03 percent 

 According to these figures, a runoff presidential election is expected to
be  held. 

 According to the preliminary results of the federal parliamentary
elections,  the distribution of seats is as follows: 

 Chamber of Citizens: 

 - DOS (Democratic Opposition of Serbia) - 59 

 - SPS-JUL (Socialist Party of Serbia, Yugoslav Left) - 44 

 - SNP (Socialist National Party) - 28 

 - SRS (Serbian Radical Party) - 3 

 - SNS (Serbian People's Party) - 2 

 Two seats will go to SPO, DZVM or SSJ, depending on final  results. 

 Chamber of the Republics: 

 - DOS (Democratic Opposition of Serbia) - 10 

 - SPS-JUL (Socialist Party of Serbia, Yugoslav Left) - 7 

 - SRS (Serbian Radical Party) - 2 

 - SPO (Serbian Renewal Movement) - 1 

 - SNS (Serbian People's Party) - 1 

 The final results will be made public within the deadline set by the law,
the Commission said. 


**************************************************

Contradicting Western Leaders, International Observers Say Elections Were
"Free and Fair"

BELGRADE, Sep. 26 - Contradicting western leaders, a group of 210
international observers from 54 countries has issued a statement in which
it says the Yugoslav elections were generally "free and fair."  Here are
excerpts from a press release we have just received from Belgrade:

"The 210 international observers from 54 countries who have come to 
Yugoslavia to monitor the elections have among them current and former 
parliamentarians, representatives from political parties and organizations, 
as well as scholars, journalists and activists. They have been able to view 
the electoral activities from rallies to the actual voting on September 24 
and many have taken the opportunity meet with the leaders of various 
political parties and the different presidential campaigns.

The observers feel strongly that they have had free, unobstructed access to
the relevant activities, and particularly to the voting at the 24 when
observers visited polling stations in different parts of Yugoslavia,
including Montenegro and Kosovo.

In Montenegro, the 20 foreign observers witnessed an overall atmosphere of
intimidation of the voters, originating from the government of Mr. Milo
Djukanovic which is boycotting the elections. Everywhere there were huge
billboards telling people not to vote.  These had the appearances of
threats: "Don't vote or else..."

Some of those who did vote, told the observers that they felt voting was
risky for them, and could lead to the loss of jobs and other forms of
harassment, as the polling stations were watched by the police and cameras
not belonging to the media were pointed at the citizens coming to vote.

In one poll, Serbian refugees from Kosovo told the observers that hundreds
of them had been left off the voters' lists, although they had the
necessary documentation to be able to vote. (This situation was brought to
the attention of the Montenegrin Electoral Commission and a more detailed
report will be forwarded to the Federal Electoral Commission of Yugoslavia.)

The observers note that the voting process overall was orderly and smooth
although it involved three separate ballots with multiple choices. The
voting process, in the opinion of many, was equal or superior to the ones
in their own countries.

The observers feel strongly that the so-called "international community"
has been abusive of Yugoslavia and democratic principles, in declaring
weeks ahead that the election will be "rigged," and heaping constant abuse
at the authorities in Yugoslavia who are trying to carry out a complicated,
multi-level election in stressful conditions. This abuse has continued
after the election, with leaders of Western countries declaring only a few
hours after the election that Mr. Vojislav Kostunica had won, as if they
would have had privileged access to the voting results!

The observers leave Yugoslavia with a heightened respect for the integrity
of the political process in the country. From what we have seen and heard,
we believe that the results will truly reflect the will and the wishes of
the people of Yugoslavia."
Contact: Marjaleena Repo, Toronto & Saskatoon, Canada, e-mail:
ccaftnat {AT} sk.sympatico.ca.

http://www.truthinmedia.org/Bulletins2000/tim2000-9-8.html

*****************************************************

Early Election Results: Big Defeat for U.S. Fifth Column Tactics

by Jared Israel (9-26-2000)
Below we have reprinted the preliminary Election Commission returns, as
posted by Tanjug, the Yugoslav news agency. The amazing thing is that
despite every sort of meddling, the U.S. has failed to bring down the
Yugoslav government. Indeed, the government coalition now has a majority in
both houses of Parliament, which governYugoslavia.

 This election has been quite something. Everyone admits that the
"democratic" opposition is massively funded by US government agencies.  The
only difference between this funding and what the CIA used to do in  the
1950s, 1960s and 1970s is that in this case some of the funding is  open.
But some of it is not so open, with money smuggled into Yugoslavia in
suitcases full of cash.(1)

 The U.S. has subjected the Yugoslav people to the most extreme kind of
intimidation. The 6th fleet is off the shore of Croatia conducting
"maneuvers". Remember, Yugoslavia has been subjected to attacks by the
U.S. and its allies and proxy forces for ten years, including 78 days of
bombing. So the people have reason to be concerned about the 6th fleet.
While holding this military stick over Yugoslav heads, the West has
promised to lift sanctions and embrace Yugoslavia, if only the Yugoslavs
get rid of Milosevich. This is a false promise. Several recent articles on
Emperor's Clothes ( www.tenc.net ) deal with the punitive treatment
Yugoslavia could expect if the US government gets its local agents in  power. 

 Today, the US House of Representatives voted to give the "independent
democratic" opposition $105 MILLION to continue what the U.S. press is now
calling its "populist" struggle. Not bad. They get to be populists plus
millions of dollars to line their pockets because note that this money is
not going to solve the problems of ordinary Yugoslavs, it is going to
reward "democratic" opposition organizations and individuals. It is bribe
money. The U.S. Establishment likes to get something for its bribes, in
this case political control.

 $105 million is a lot of money in Yugoslavia. First of all, it's a small
country with 1/25th of the U.S. population. And it is very poor, compared
to the U.S. $150 (US) a month is an OK salary in Yugoslavia; you can live
on $150 about as well as someone making about $2000 in the U.S. 

 So to get an idea of the effect of $105 million in U.S. terms, multiply by
25  (for population) and 13.333 (for salary.) This means that in equivalent
US dollars, Congress just voted to pay $35 BILLION to the "independent"
opposition. 

 So the U.S. government is holding out a big (though entirely deceptive)
carrot and a big stick. What a spirit of resistance, that under these
circumstances the Yugoslavs would give a majority of seats in both houses
of Parliament to the parties the U.S .wants them to dump. This spirit of
resistance is what the U.S. and Germany have been trying to destroy for ten
long years. Indeed, Germany has been trying to break the Serbian spirit for
a hundred years, if not more.

 Parliamentary Returns

 The most important elections are those for the two houses of Parliament.
There, the Government Coalition of the Socialist Party, the JUL and
Montenegrin SNP have gained an absolute majority in Parliament. 

 Presidential Returns Give Kostunica a Plurality, Requiring a Runoff Election

 In the Presidential race, the Election Commission returns give both
Milosevich and Kostunica under 40 and 48% respectively. Since both are
under 50%, a run-off is required.

 But a run-off would be bad for the DOS. Milosevich will most likely fare
better in a run-off than he did in round one. Why? For one thing, he will
get most of the Radical Party vote. More important, many of the more
nationalist Serbs didn't vote in round one because they didn't want to vote
for Milosevich, but they will vote for him in round two because they see
Kostunica's coalition as tied to the U.S. Kostunica's absolute numbers may
go up, but his percentlocas of the total could well go down.

 The U.S. has a problem. Even if Kostunica were to win the Presidential
vote, the government is controlled by Parliament, and Parliament is solidly
in the hands of the Governing coalition. Therefore the US is using its
"democratic" opposition to try and destabilize the situation and bring the
government down. 

 Djindjic Attacks Official Returns, Followed by Kostunica

 At approximately 3:00 Eastern U.S. time Democratic Party leader Zoran
Djindjic publicly attacked the Election Commission returns, claiming they
were false. He provided no evidence. This is consistent, of course. Prior
to the elections, Djindjic and the State Department and Robin Cook and
every Western newsman assured us that Milosevich would "steal" the
elections, but never indicated how, so why provide evidence now that "the
deed has been done"?

 Djindjic said his coalition would demand to see the official returns and
"compare them with ours, one by one if necessary" and that they would
reject a runoff because "we will respect the result that was registered on
September 24." ('Reuters, 9-26-2000, 3.08 PM)

 An hour later, the official candidate of the "democratic" coalition spoke
up. Vojislav Kostunica followed Djindjic's lead, echoing the charges of
fraud and the refusal to participate in the runoff. ('Reuters, 9-26-2000,
4.10 PM)

 Kostunica was picked to be the "democratic" coalition's candidate because
he had not been discredited (like Mr. Djindjic) as an agent of the U.S.
government. But as we have pointed out, (2) Kostunica's character is not
the issue because Kostunica is not the master of his fate. He relies on the
DOS coalition and various "democratic" organizations, like the Group of 17
economists. They in turn rely on the U.S. government. How can Kostunica
buck these forces? They have the U.S. money; they have the organizations;
and they have the media. He has Kostunica and a tiny political party. 

 The Golden Rule: He Who Has the Gold Makes The Rules

 The U.S. has given tens of millions of dollars to the "democratic"
opposition. Kostunica says he has taken none of this money. If this is
true, then Zoran Djindjic and the other "independent" democrats are getting
it all. Djindjic has an organization able to smuggle cash across the border
("in suitcases" according to the N.Y. Times) (1) And the G-17 economists, a
leading component of the US-funded opposition, has the ties to the
International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.

 So Zoran Djindjic speaks at 3pm and Vojislav Kostunica echoes him at 4.
There you have it: a small example but one that reflects the true relation
of forces. Whatever Mr. Kostunica really is, whatever he really wants,
whatever he has convinced himself he is doing, he is only the tail. The dog
is Zoran Djindjic, the G-17 economists, Vesna Pesic, Radio B292 and the
rest of the independent democratic civil society peace activist opposition,
and they all work for the USA

  (1) Here is the quote from the 'NY Times' on how "democratic" opposition
money gets into Yugoslavia:

      "The money from the West is going to most of the institutions
      that the government attacks for receiving it - sometimes in
      direct aid, sometimes in indirect aid like computers and
      broadcasting equipment, and sometimes in suitcases of cash
      carried across the border between Yugoslavia and Hungary
      or Serbia and Montenegro. Most of those organizations and
      news media could not exist without foreign aid." 
      ('N.Y. Times', 9-20-2000. 

 For the complete 'N.Y. Times' story and a commentary from Emperor's
Clothes, see "'NY Times' Confirms Charge: U.S. Gov't Meddles in Yugoslavia"
at http://emperors-clothes.com/news/erlang.htm 

 (2) See 'US ARROGANCE AND YUGSOLASV ELECTIONS' at
http://emperors-clothes.com/engl.htm 

**************************************************

NATO Game-Plan: Destabilize Yugoslavia  

by George Szamuely (9-27-2000)
It is entirely appropriate that US policymakers, their British parrots, and
assorted NATO toadies are already debating the future course of Yugoslavia.
Having first denounced last Sunday's elections as totally meaningless since
they would inevitably be "stolen" by President Slobodan Milosevic, they
then turned around and decided, before any results had been announced, that
Vojislav Kostunica had won outright on the first ballot. So much then for
Milosevic's chicanery. NATO's high-fives at the election results are
reminiscent of the inane rejoicing that followed the end of the Kosovo
bombing last year. It had taken 11 weeks to defeat a tiny power like
Yugoslavia. And even then it was NATO that had to make the concessions, not
Milosevic. Yet the Brits and the Americans celebrated, as if it were VE-Day
all over again. The election results show a far from convincing win in the
first round of voting for Kostunica, as well as a victory for the
Government coalition in the Yugoslav parliament. NATO claims vindication.
But if it has indeed "won"-and this is by no means clear-then it is only
after a massive and unprecedented effort at
 intimidation. The Serbs were first bribed to vote the "right" way-thus the
proverbial "carrot". And if that failed to do the trick, there was the
threat of military action-the "stick". 

 It is hard to take any elections seriously under such circumstances. How
can you cast a vote for the candidate of your choice if there is a chance
of cruise missiles blowing up your home if you vote the "wrong" way? The
best NATO can boast is that it avoided total humiliation. Incidentally, it
is meaningless to talk of NATO any longer-today it is nothing more than an
echo chamber for yapping Pentagon and State Department officials, and their
fierce little pups in London. Here is the glorious record of NATO heroism:
$75 million from Washington to bankroll the Yugoslav opposition. Millions
more to aid municipalities deemed not under Milosevic's control. Millions
to line Montenegrin President Milo Djuakonovic's pockets. US and EU
promises to lift sanctions if Milosevic is voted out. Then there are the
threats: Any result other than a defeat for Milosevic will be considered by
Washington to be the product of fraud. The US reserves the right to
intervene to prevent such a calamity. 

 Today, the United States is demanding that Milosevic steps down, even
though the Yugoslav Federal Electoral Commission is saying that Kostunica
did not receive 50 percent of the vote. The US Government is accepting
without question the claims of the Democratic Opposition that Kostunica won
55 percent to Milosevic's 35 percent. Yet these figures are not based on
any vote count, but on the reports of opposition poll watchers-hardly a
disinterested bunch of observers. There were no American observers at the
polls. The Russians were there. They claim they witnessed no election
irregularities. Clearly, the orders emanating from Washington, and relayed
through Budapest, is that the "opposition" take to the streets and demand
Milosevic's resignation. Such protests could well elicit a violent
response. This, in turn, could be seized on by the United States as a
threat to the region, justifying military intervention. Alternatively, the
"opposition" may be encouraged to boycott a run-off and establish a
Government in exile-perhaps in Podgorica. Such a Government would enjoy
diplomatic recognition and would in due course, act as a NATO stooge urging
an invasion of Yugoslavia to remove the "illegitimate" Government in Belgrade.

 In the meantime, military threats are increasing. "We...need to make sure
that Milosevic understands there is very substantial capacity in the
region"-thus British Foreign Secretary Robin Cook Britain has 15  warships
in the Mediterranean near Yugoslavia operating in two training groups. They
are manned by 5,000 sailors, Royal Marines and aircrew. They include the
aircraft carrier Invincible, which carries Harrier jump-jet fighters, the
destroyer HMS Liverpool, helicopter assault ship HMS Ocean, the amphibious
assault ship HMS Fearless and 10 more ships including minesweepers, a
tanker, a store ship and Northumberland, a type-23 frigate. US and Croat
forces are holding joint naval exercises 150 miles northwest of Montenegro.
They include a simulated Marine landing on an island in the Adriatic Sea.
On September 28, Romania and Bulgaria are planning a joint exercise at the
Romanian Danube port of Turnu Magurele. The plan includes the construction
of a pontoon bridge across the Danube and the evacuation of the local
population.

 On Monday, the US House of Representatives passed a bill authorizing $500
million in financial aid for opposition groups in Yugoslavia. $500 million
is a huge amount of money in a country as small, impoverished and as
burdened by economic sanctions as Yugoslavia. Funds of this magnitude
cannot but corrupt the most virtuous of nations. Remember, this is a
Republican-controlled House of Representatives, which normally protests
foreign aid, debt relief, and handouts in general. 

 It is not hard to imagine what the future holds in store for Yugoslavia.
Suppose the United States gets what it wants. Slobodan Milosevic steps
aside and Kostunica takes over. There is a peaceful transition, and both
the United States and the European Union lift sanctions as promised. In no
time at all, the United States will demand the surrender of Milosevic to
The Hague. Indeed, it will be an election issue, with George W. Bush
baiting the Clinton Administration for being insufficiently zealous in its
pursuit of Milosevic. Kostunica will probably refuse these demands. Soon
the media will fall into lockstep parroting the line that as long as
Milosevic is residing in Belgrade, he is the one who is really running the
show. Every day journalists will be informing us that Kostunica is nothing
more than Milosevic's puppet. Congress will then vote to cut off all
further funds to Yugoslavia. The EU will follow suit. At that point,
US-financed demonstrations will take place in Belgrade and other major
cities. The protesters will demand that Milosevic be handed over to the
Tribunal. If the US gets lucky, there will be some violence. At that point,
Washington will summon Kostunica and tell him that he is jeopardizing
Balkan stability. If he wants to stay in power, he will have to play ball
with the United States. Milosevic must be handed over. The Rambouillet
Accords will be put back on the table, along with Appendix B and the
referendum on Kosovo independence. And while we are at it, Vojvodina will
have to be offered a "special" status. 

 One thing is for sure, the United States will not simply permit Yugoslavia
to walk away and happily enjoy the prestige that comes from having defied
the world's greatest powers for over 10 years. Yugoslavia will be made to
pay. 
www.tenc.net [Emperor's Clothes]

****************************************************

Despite all, many stay true to Milosevic
                                                                       
By LUTZ KLEVEMAN
PRISTINA, YUGOSLAVIA
Wednesday 27 September 2000

The many bars and cafes along the main road in Mitrovica, a drab industrial
town in the north of Kosovo, were packed on Monday night with bearded Serbs
watching the evening news from Belgrade. Many nodded in sombre satisfaction
when the newsreader on RTS state television reported "a clear lead" for
President Slobodan Milosevic midway through the vote-counting.  Mr
Milosevic may have sent their sons into four deadly wars, impoverished
them, beaten them and taken them hostage in an isolated pariah state, but
that is not how millions of Serbs see his 13-year rule. Random exit polls
in the "other" Serbia outside the opposition stronghold, Belgrade, showed
widespread support for the Serb strongman, casting doubts on Western
beliefs that put Mr Milosevic's popularity down solely to propaganda and
fear. 
"Of course I voted for Milosevic because he defends the freedom of our
country," said one voter leaving a polling station. The villain in the
people's mind is NATO, not Mr Milosevic. While the nationalist frenzy of
the early 1990s might be abating, Serbs are still deeply divided between
Western-oriented, mostly urban, democratic reformers and strong Slavic
do-it-alone patriots.
Members of the first camp feel that by bombing the country and imposing
economic sanctions, the West has not made life easier for them. "Nothing
has helped Milosevic and hurt the chances for democracy in Serbia more than
the bombing," said Milan Samardzic, a student activist. Alexander Mitic, a
Belgrade-based journalist, explained: "The experiences of the last 10
years, the wars and the poverty, have made Serbs a very fearful people.
They cling on to whatever seems a certainty - including Milosevic."
Serbs have become obsessed with even the most outlandish conspiracy
theories. A front-page story in one tabloid blamed Yugoslavia's unusually
hot summer on NATO planes blowing away clouds with laser rays to torture
the population. The issue was sold out within hours. Even most Serbs in
Kosovo, who have felt the disastrous consequences of Mr Milosevic's
policies most painfully, still support him. Father Sava Janjic of the
Gracanica Monastery recalled: "He appeared like a savior to the Serbs in
Kosovo - and he still does, despite all." 
-TELEGRAPH- Copyright  The Age Company Ltd 2000

******************************************************************

"The hardest problem to resolve may be Kosovo.
Mr. Kostunica will not find it easy to get his fellow Serbs to
accept independence for Kosovo -- yet the Albanians will settle
for nothing else. The key is to offer the Serbs territorial
compensation for the loss of Kosovo, and that means looking in a
wider Balkan context at the international borders that have not
won acceptance, and negotiating territorial adjustments to
achieve Balkan-wide stability."

September 26, 2000 - The Wall Street Journal

Yugoslavia After Milosevic

By David Owen. 

The wisest course for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization countries to
take in the immediate aftermath of the Yugoslav presidential elections
would be to refrain from pontificating and gesturing. If past form serves
as a guide, such actions only make it more difficult for the Serbian people
to bring about an end to the Milosevic regime. Instead, the West should
allow Vojislav Kostunica, the undoubted winner, to guide them on his
post-election strategy.

In Mr. Kostunica, at long last, we have a credible Serb leader. He is too
nationalistic, inevitably, but was fortunately never a Communist. We must
givehim the political leeway he needs to heal political wounds and bind
Serbia together.

Early today, the Milosevic government will go through the charade of
announcing the election
results, and the West will be certain to condemnthe inevitable rigging of
the ballot. But the reactions of the Serbian people, and the strategies
they adoptin their struggle to oust Mr. Milosevic, are likely to be less
predictable.

The key, in the next few days and weeks, will be the loyaltiesof the armed
forces, which could be broken by prolonged peaceful demonstrations. But the
police force, which has been turned into a paramilitary body by Mr.
Milosevic, is unlikely to bend to demonstrators. They have been singled out
by Mr. Milosevic for special treatment for more than a decade, and are
relatively well-paid and well-equipped. I would expect them to stay loyal
to Mr. Milosevic. I fear they will, as usual, try to engender panic by
savagely attacking some demonstrators. A lot will depend on whether they
show more restraint than has hitherto been their wont.

Two months ago, Mr. Milosevic changed the constitution to have direct
elections for the Yugoslav presidency, scrapping the previous system of
indirect elections by the federal parliament.
He expected the opposition to remain divided. But he miscalculated, and the
17 opposition parties came together to support Mr. Kostunica. The
Montenegrin government decided to boycott the election, leaving the result
to be determined by Serbs, whether in Montenegro or in Serbia itself. In
United Nations-administered Kosovo, polling stations for the election were
open, but there were few Serbs left to vote. The truth inYugoslavia for
many years has been that it doesn't matter who votes, but rather, who
counts the votes.

Why did the Milosevic regime highlight the constitutional provision that a
new president would only take office next summer? It is almost certain that
Mr. Milosevic considered the possibility that he might be defeated by such
a large margin that even he would not be able to escape its message. In
such circumstances, it would be typical of him to aim to stay on for
another nine months in the belief that he could broker a graceful exit.

Mr. Milosevic is at his most inventive when cornered. He is, after all, the
man who went to war with NATO well aware that all he could expect to do was
to negotiate after a period of fighting. He knew the Yugoslav forces could
not win, but he also knew that the Serb parliament would never have
accepted the terms of the Rambouillet accord.

The fact that Secretary of State Madeleine Albright advised President
Clinton that Mr. Milosevic would fold after a few days of bombing was a
testament to how little she understood Serbian intransigence. After 98 days
of bombing, Mr. Clinton negotiated a settlement with Russian involvement
under which -- in contrast to Rambouillet -- the U.N., not NATO,
administered Kosovo. Furthermore, NATO troops did not enter Kosovo through
Serbia, and the provisions on returning indicted war criminals were toned
down. Many of the Serb tank commanders rolled out of Kosovo still eager to
have a go at NATO, but Mr. Milosevic judged it was better to keep his armed
forces virtually intact. We in NATO were spared any casualties.

Apart from former Secretary of State Cyrus Vance, I have probably spent
more hours negotiating with Mr. Milosevic than any other Western
politician. Everything is negotiable, but he will provoke a civil war
rather than end up facing trial for war crimes in The Hague.

I suspect that it will take all of Mr. Clinton's renowned political
instincts to script an exit for Mr. Milosevic, one in which a civil war is
avoided in Montenegro, or in Serbia itself. The Serb president will cling
to office like a limpet. Mr. Clinton would be well advised to consult
closely with Vladimir Putin. Moscow knows the Serb mindset far better than
Washington.

The outlines of a settlement are not hard to discern. Mr. Milosevic has to
accept that Mr. Kostunica has won the election, and that the latter must
become president soon. Mr. Kostunica has already said he will not send Mr.
Milosevic to The Hague, and the West should have enough common sense not to
push him on this point.

That does not require the Hague court to grant an amnesty, but it would
mean that NATO countries would refrain from applying sanctions against the
Kostunica government if it were to allow Mr. Milosevic to stay on Yugoslav
territory without being arrested. Perhaps the best solution would be for
Mr. Milosevic to be sent as Ambassador to the Yugoslav embassy in Beijing.
China would not object.

In view of the massacre at Srebrenica, for which he bears personal
responsibility, I cannot see how the West can avoid demanding that Gen.
Ratko Mladic be sent to The Hague. Gen. Mladic, a hero of the Serbian armed
forces, lives quite openly in Belgrade, and has been seen attending soccer
matches in the city. His extradition would prove deeply unpopular with the
army, so we may have to acquiesce in the existing head of the Yugoslav
armed forces, Gen. Nebojsa Pavkovic, being spared an international trial.

Loud objections will be heard, of course, which assert that any settlement
that does not involve Mr. Milosevic's head would be a sell-out. Yet the
price of peace in the Balkans may well be that high, though like most
people, it sticks in my gullet that Mr. Milosevic might escape trial.

Recovery could be quite quick in a new Yugoslavia, provided the West really
does help in its reconstruction and that Mr. Milosevic does not destabilize
the country. The hardest problem to resolve may be Kosovo. Mr. Kostunica
will not find it easy to get his fellow Serbs to accept independence for
Kosovo - yet the Albanians will settle for nothing else. The key is to
offer the Serbs territorial compensation for the loss of Kosovo, and that
means looking in a wider Balkan context at the international borders that
have not won acceptance, and negotiating territorial adjustments to achieve
Balkan-wide stability.

(Lord Owen has served as Britain's foreign secretary and as the European
Union's peace envoy to Yugoslavia.)

****************************************************

U.S. House Approves $500 Million for Serb Opposition

WASHINGTON, Sep. 25 - For nine years, the Serb democratic opposition
received next to nothing by way of financial aid from Washington.  Then as
we revealed last week, they were funded to the tune of $77 million.  Now
that figure has jumped up to $500 million, according to a Sep. 25 Reuters
report.

In a move meant to put more pressure on Yugoslav President Slobodan
Milosevic after Western nations declared him beaten at the polls, the House
of Representatives passed a bill on Monday by a two-thirds majority in a
voice vote authorizing $500 million in financial aid for Serbian opposition
groups, the Reuters wire said.

Although the outcome of Sunday's Yugoslav elections will not be announced
until later this week, the United States, Britain, Germany, France and
other members of the European Union all declared on Monday that Milosevic
had lost to main opposition challenger Vojislav Kostunica.

http://www.truthinmedia.org/Bulletins2000/tim2000-9-8.html

******************************************************

Global Reflexion - Amsterdam - The Netherlands





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