Ivo Skoric on Tue, 6 Apr 1999 08:26:42 +0200 (CEST)

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<nettime> Dirty Dozen

Dozen points:

1) NATO cannot afford to loose a war against Serbia, not its first 
war ever.
2) Milosevic cannot afford to loose a war against NATO.
3) Chances of Milosevic winning against NATO are the same as were the 
chances of KLA winning against Yugoslav Army, i.e. Serbia will 
eventually loose the war.
4) Milosevic can and will mobilize enough zealots to make NATO's 
victory as bloody as possible through their unnecessary martyrdom.
5) The war is like a game of chess: since Milosevic did not move his 
army back from Kosovo in response to NATO air strikes, but instead 
intensified the ethnic cleansing campaign against Albanians - 
reducing their numbers in Kosovo for a third, NATO now decided to 
move Apache helicopters and anti-personnel missiles in Albania. 
Again, Yugoslav Army has the option to leave. It may stay and loose 
tanks and soldiers as well.
6) The arrogance of power: it is correct that what NATO is doing is 
unprecedented and frightening, This is a clear signal to all 
countries that they can be targeted and strategically harmed at any 
time, and that there is no way they can defend themselves against 
those attacks (by cruise missiles and stealth aircraft). This clearly 
demonstrates that power is what matters in this new world order, and 
it gives us a notice who holds that power: the U.S. and the U.K.
7) The arrogance of NATO, however, comes as a poetic justice to top 
the arrogance of power embodied in the past decade of actions 
commited by Slobodan Milosevic and his Yugoslav Army. The same how 
Belgrade cannot defend its bridges and factories against cruise 
missiles - Sarajevo couldn't defend its buildings against Serbian 
shells. They were fired at will, without notice, and there was no way 
to stop them. Besides, Yugoslav Army never cared to avoid civilian 
casualties. The tactics for 8 years of war was: surround the village 
where lightly armed rebels are hiding, pound it with heavy artillery 
(protected by landmines fields) into surrender. Now, however, they 
cry uncle. 
8) Russia and China, the two big uncles, are unhappy with the 
situation, but not because of Serbia: because of themselves. They 
don't like the idea that NATO takes the role of the UN, because this 
puts them out of the loop. They are steaming angry that they don't 
have cruise missiles and stealth aircraft to counter the U.S. Russia 
now has the wreck of F117 shot over Serbia, but it might take years 
for them to develop their own stealth aircraft, and Milosevic will be 
long gone by then.
9) The issue of sovereignty: Serbian nationalists believe that they 
have the birthright to rule over the entire territory of former 
Yugoslavia, and to rule as they please. Grudgingly they accepted 
first Slovenia to "leave", then Croatia, Bosnia and Macedonia. Bu 
they pledged never to let Kosovo, the "craddle" of their medieval 
state, go. Their sovereignty derives from historic rights, ancestral 
bones and it has nothing to do with the modern concept of sovereignty 
based on the will of the citizens.
10) Therefore, both Serbs and NATO are right - each of them in their 
own eyes.  But, Albanians are right, too: after all they lived there 
long before the Serbs came.
11) NATO will not send troops (and refugees back) into Kosovo, until 
Yugoslav Army is so weak that it can't fight back.
12) If Yugoslav Army is to live Kosovo, they will mine and booby-trap 
everything they'll leave behind.


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