While we saw a lot of Trumpists having the best day of their life bathing in the pleasure of transgression, there were others hiding in that mob who knew what they were doing.... They understand distributed leadership and have for years.
This is for sure. While another attack on the Capitol next week is unlikely to succeed, it's being called for and could still be attempted. I'd say statehouses across the country have even more to fear. As far as I can see, far-right groups like the Three Percenters have a perfect understanding of how to foment their extremism through broad communications networks with weak ties, and also how to organize tactically on a squad level (there were effectively five or six guys in similar military gear, at least two carrying zip ties, and that's off the top of my head, there were likely more tight groups). Whether they have or will now gain strategic organizational capacities, like the ability to have multiple disciplined squads converge according to a shared plan, is the question with the most military significance.
The event that did happen was coordinated by Trump and his inner circle. It was announced in advance, legitimated by almost one hundred fifty representatives and senators, catalyzed by the rally in the morning, and enabled in the afternoon by reducing the DC National Guard units to traffic control function, ie no guns and no riot gear. I doubt there was any direct manipulation of the Capitol police: probably shared anti-BLM sympathies were enough. Even though Trump's coordination of the event was partial, incoherent and ultimately a failure, still he alone made it possible, which is exactly why the Dems now want to eliminate him permanently from the formal political arena. One big question is whether a strategically capable revolutionary force emerges from the energy and enthusiasm of this presidentially coordinated insurrection. So far the American far right has never gotten near that level, but look at what they just did. A new playing field opened up for them: it was their Seattle '99, their "Levitate the Pentagon" moment. Such explosions don't just stop after the boom. Instead they proliferate and send down much deeper roots.
The other big question, I agree, is what happens to the Republican party. The current conflicts give the Dems a respite from continuous right-wing political attack -- that's why the failed insurrection was a good thing, because it has temporarily halted the government-level strategy machine. The ideal outcome for us would be a party broken into the kind of splinters that you describe, Steve. Yet it's obvious to everyone: a broken party is an ineffective one. I doubt the Republicans will permanently splinter. Either they patch up and improve Trump's model - with its fantastically enabling divide of us vs them, conservative community vs globalist conspiracy, fake news vs true experience - or they retreat into a more Reagan-era guise, and try to exploit the next economic expansion. I don't see any way of predicting what they will ultimately do, we will know in two years.
For now, the question is what happens in the next two weeks? This is also the biggest chance in decades to move forward on progressive issues - you have to reach back to the inauguration of Kennedy or Roosevelt to find such promise. The insurrection at the Capitol could be the birth pangs of the Green New Deal.
act now, Brian