<nettime> Christopher Adam: Orbán’s threat of revenge has fired up the Hungarian opposition

[Patrice Riemens <patrice@xs4all.nl>]

original to:
http://hungarianfreepress.com/2018/03/16/orbans-threat-of-revenge-has-fired-up-the-hungarian-opposition/



Orbán’s threat of revenge has fired up the Hungarian opposition
March 16, 2018 3:55 pm·


Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s decision to use his speech on a Hungarian 
national holiday to explicitly threaten legal and political revenge 
against his opponents has opposition politicians, journalists, academics 
and civil liberties activists wondering if the election on 8 April is, 
indeed, a “do or die” situation. The most recent Medián poll, released 
this week, shows that Fidesz is set to win a majority on 8 April, yet 
Mr. Orbán’s language was more becoming of a rattled dictator who after 
years of invincibility now fears that there is actually a chance that 
his regime might collapse.

Zoltán Lakner, a political scientists and editor of 168 Óra, suggested 
that Fidesz is constantly producing internal polls and that it is 
possible that these numbers tell a different story than the public ones. 
We know from the Medián poll that even a series of corruption scandals 
and a surprise election loss in Hódmezővásárhely has not discouraged two 
million hard-core Fidesz voters. Medián has Fidesz at 54% among decided 
voters, with Jobbik at 16% , MSZP-Párbeszéd at 12%, followed by the 
Democratic Coalition at 9% and Politics Can Be Different (LMP) at 5%. 
There are 600,000 allegedly undecided voters who are nonetheless 
committed to voting on 8 April–it is believed that many of them are 
purposefully concealing their intentions from pollsters and this does 
add some uncertainty to the outcome of the vote.

As for Fidesz voters, especially the tens of thousands bused to Budapest 
who participated yesterday in the so-called Peace March alongside the 
regime’s Polish fans: they truly behave like members of a cult–closed 
off from critical media reports and brainwashed by clever and cynical 
political communicators. Although they absurdly refer to this event as a 
Peace March, they physically attacked conservative journalist György 
Unyatyinszki of Magyar Nemzet, punched him in the ribs and threatened to 
drown him in the Danube. One of the security guards hired by the Peace 
March’s organizer, the (Civil Összefogás Fórum – CÖF) said with a smile 
that Unyatyinszki was hit because he asked too many questions. One 
cannot question Viktor Orbán. Peace March cult members declared that Mr. 
Orbán is the saviour of the Hungarian nation.

Gábor Török, a political scientist who previously had very close ties 
with Mr. Orbán and Fidesz, argued that explicitly threatening people who 
do not support Fidesz in a speech on a national holiday may prove to be 
a serious strategic mistake. While this sort of war language does 
successfully motivate and mobilize Fidesz supporters, it is likely to 
also mobilize opposition voters who may have otherwise sat out the 8 
April election. And historically, the key to defeating Fidesz is high 
turn-out. In his blog, Mr. Török argued that Mr. Orbán could have used 
other channels to send a message to people like Lajos Simicska, who are 
causing him headaches–but a speech on a major national holiday was an 
inappropriate venue for this. It appears as though Mr. Orbán said what 
was on his heart, but not what is politically practical for him at this 
juncture.

I can certainly say that Mr. Orbán’s open threat against those opposing 
Fidesz fired up opposition voters perhaps more than anything 
else–including the recent corruption scandals or the results of 
Hódmezővásárhely. The very existence of the Hungarian opposition beyond 
April–including what remains of the critical media and the NGO 
sector–now appears at stake. A historian friend of mine, respected in 
his field and who has always been more of a conservative, certainly 
never aligned with the old MSZP-SZDSZ type liberal left, suggested that 
he could accept Mr. Orbán’s eventual exile to Russia, following in the 
footsteps of Stalinist dictator Mátyás Rákosi. But he also envisioned an 
angry Hungarian mob lynching the prime minister, using a tree in the 
hills of Buda. That is a disturbing and gory outcome, but one 
increasingly put forward by an ever-angrier “silent majority” of 
Hungarians.

These scenes of violence become a reality if it becomes clear that Mr. 
Orbán will not, under any condition, cede power peacefully. And this is 
one take-away from his speech.

Jobbik spokesperson Ádám Mirkóczki said on Friday that Viktor Orbán is 
“mentally ill.” He added that the Fidesz platform contains a single 
word: revenge.

Gergely Karácsony of MSZP-P said that what Mr. Orbán said on 15 March is 
typical of ruthless dictators: he put all voters who want a change in 
government on notice, that their decision will result in legal and 
political ramifications.

Viktor Szigetvári of Együtt, however, spoke out the most forcefully: 
Prime Minister Orbán has declared civil war in Hungary.

Regardless of the outcome of the April election, Hungary appears to be 
heading in a critical, potentially violent direction. If Mr. Orbán wins 
a clear majority, he has now announced that nobody should expect a 
period of peaceful consolidation. He will likely move more in the 
direction of Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. If Fidesz fails to win a 
majority, there is only one thing that brings all opposition parties 
together: a growing desire to hold the criminal alliance called Fidesz 
and its politicians to account for the last eight years. Mr. Orbán and 
the people around him know this–and this is why it is difficult to see 
him giving up power peacefully.

also interesting:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/mar/30/danger-hungary-verge-full-blown-autocracy-viktor-orban-vengeance

(george Szirtes: Viktor Orbán presumes victory and threatens vengeance 
to anyone who opposes him. Europe must see what he is doing )

But for now:

Kellemes Húsvéti Ünnepeket Mindenkinek!
;-)


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