<nettime> high fiber digest [gray, gurstein]

["nettime's_digestive_tract" <nettime@bbs.thing.net>]

Re: <nettime> Only 5% of laid fibre is lit in USA
     Tom_Gray@Mitel.COM
     "Michael Gurstein" <mgurst@vcn.bc.ca>

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From: Tom_Gray@Mitel.COM
Date: Tue, 26 Jun 2001 14:34:33 -0400
Subject: Re: <nettime> Only 5% of laid fibre is lit in USA

The amount of fibre in the ground will make a significant difference to the
manufacturers of fibre and the manufacturers of newer higher rate hardware.

Obviously if there is a large amount of unlit fibre, there will be little 
demand for new fibre and fibre manufacturers will be affected.

Additionally if there is existing fibre in the ground than the necessity to
purchase newer higher rate transmission equipment is lessened. A new 40Gig
system will look very attractive and command premium prices if unlit fibre is
scarce. If there is more than adequate unlit fibre then older (possibly second
hand) lower rate equipment can be added as needed.  Teh effectsd on equipment
manufacturers are apparent.

Equipment manufacturers will have to have an appropriate set of products to
function in this  surplus environment which is distinctly different from the
fibre shortage environment. In a fibre-surplus environment, management equipment
will be of greatest concern to users to allow quick deployment of channels. if
the fibre-shortage environment higher speed equipmet will be of greater
interest. An unfavorable product focus may be one of the reasons for Nortel's
current difficulties.



"Michael Gurstein" <mgurst@vcn.bc.ca> on 06/26/2001 12:46:15 PM

Please respond to "Michael Gurstein" <mgurst@vcn.bc.ca>

To:   nettime-l@bbs.thing.net
cc:    (bcc: Tom Gray/Kan/Mitel)

Subject:  <nettime> Only 5% of laid fibre is lit in USA
 <...>

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From: "Michael Gurstein" <mgurst@vcn.bc.ca>
Subject: Re: <nettime> Only 5% of laid fibre is lit in USA
Date: Tue, 26 Jun 2001 12:04:12 -0700

Hi Tom,

I take your point, but clearly this is of most interest to the companies and
investors affected rather than the users/applications developers.  Your
comments about the need for changes in the technology business strategy for
companies like Nortel are are well taken.

My argument though, was that from an applications/user perspective (and here
in Canada from the perspective of potential government support for the
"universal access" recommendations of the National Broadband Task Force
http://www.broadband.ic.gc.ca ), the WSJ article was misleading and
potentially dangerous as it suggested a lack of interest/usefulness in the
available bandwidth, thus implying that there was no need or desire for
Broadband connectivity beyond what is currently available (in massively over
serviced urban markets).

The 5% argument has already been taken up and widely quoted in Canadian
papers to support opposition to the proposed proram.

The fact that there is redundancy in the supply is at least an artifact of
the technology (and the market) and doesn't imply anything about the
usefulness or "desireability" of the product.

Mike Gurstein
mgurst@vcn.bc.ca


----- Original Message -----
From: <Tom_Gray@Mitel.COM>
To: "Michael Gurstein" <mgurst@vcn.bc.ca>
Cc: <nettime-l@bbs.thing.net>
Sent: Tuesday, June 26, 2001 11:34 AM
Subject: Re: <nettime> Only 5% of laid fibre is lit in USA

> From:  Tom Gray@MITEL on 06/26/2001 02:34 PM
>
> The amount of fibre in the ground will make a significant difference to
> the manufacturers of fibre and the manufacturers of newer higher rate
> hardware.
 <...>

 Michael Gurstein & Associates
Vancouver BC CANADA

(Visiting) Professor of Management
 New Jersey Institute of Technology
 Newark, NJ

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